The LNS does not, as you have probably observed, spend much time posting or distributing poll numbers. Of course, the LNS does spend considerable energy refuting their frequent misrepresentation to promote a deceptive reading of the political temperature of the country, or worse, their frequent misconstruction to promote a deceptive reading of the political temperature of the country. Although the LNS does not spend much time posting or distributiong poll numbers, we do spend a lot of time studying them (many of them), and as everyone who studies them seriously knows Zogby is the most accurate...Now, being an astute critic of the "US mainstream news media" you are probably not surprised that the major network news organizations are not *running* with this glimpse into the US electorate's thinking less than 100 days before the national referendum on the CREDIBILITY, CHARACTER and COMPETENCE of the increasingly unhinged and incredibly shrinking _resident...And remember, it is worse for the increasingly unhinged and incredibly shrinking _resident than even Zogbydetects...Yes, there is an Electoral Uprising coming...
John Zogby and Christopher Conroy, www.zogby.com: The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.
The most important group in this election now is the
undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing among them is weak.
He is generally well liked among the undecideds,
having a strong favorability (56%), but his job
performance is another story. Only 32% approve of
Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country
is headed in the right direction...
There are three factors contributing to Senator
Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is President
Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach
to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies,
and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his base.
Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead
in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if
Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to
Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the
small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is
in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst
Hispanics – who will potentially make up a great
portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and
young voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like
Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting – will stand to
boost his total share of the vote with every point
their turnout increases. Mr. Kerry is showing a
2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t
vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of
Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to
4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing
of Gore voters in 2000.
Break the Corporatist Stranglehold on the "US
Mainstream News Media," Show Up for Demoracy in 2004:
Defeat Bush (again!)
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849
The Race Is On: An Analysis of the Post-Convention
Zogby Poll By John Zogby and Christopher Conroy
The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for
President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace.
Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John
Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his
base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach to base
Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a
failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the
electorate.
The most important group in this election now is the
undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing among them is weak.
He is generally well liked among the undecideds,
having a strong favorability (56%), but his job
performance is another story. Only 32% approve of
Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country
is headed in the right direction. The undecideds are
not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a
favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still
sell his message to them: over a quarter (28%) are
either not familiar enough or are not sure of their
opinion yet. These undecided voters are generally
dissatisfied with the President, but are still not
acquainted enough with the Senator from Massachusetts
to support him.
The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the
Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic communities seem to
have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a
similar margin to that which former Vice-President Al
Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000. Mr. Bush is
also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with
only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while
Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%. Mr.
Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics,
topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only
has Bush’s courting of them failed, but his use of
wedge issues like gay marriage and partial birth
abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from
Kerry.
The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the
Clinton margins of the 1990s.
Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered
to be his best region, the South. While Kerry’s
choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest
boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans
are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support.
Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in
favorability in the South (55% for both), the
Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in
the South. President Bush’s job performance is down
to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners
think the country is headed in the right direction.
Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states,
among Young voters and among Single voters. In the
Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in
the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%.
Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a
total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29
year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in
2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.
There are three factors contributing to Senator
Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is President
Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach
to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies,
and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his base.
Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead
in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if
Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to
Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the
small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is
in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst
Hispanics – who will potentially make up a great
portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and
young voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like
Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting – will stand to
boost his total share of the vote with every point
their turnout increases. Mr. Kerry is showing a
2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t
vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of
Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to
4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing
of Gore voters in 2000.
John Zogby is President of Zogby International.
Christopher Conroy is Political Research Associate at
Zogby International.