Politics is ugly. That's why Dick Morris understands it so
well. You may not respect Morris as a person, but you
have to respect him as an analyst. He is not always
correct. No one is...But he is damn good...Ask Bill
linton...In Thursday's LNS, you read James Zogby,
America's most credible and independent political
pollster offering his analysis, i.e. the 2004 election
is "Kerry's to lose." Now here is Morris' take on the
2004 election, posted, interestingly, on Zogby's site.
Dick Morris, Zogby Sound Bite: One of the (very few)
immutable laws of politics is that the undecided vote
almost always goes against the incumbent...More bad
news for Bush: Democrats usually grow 2-3 points right
before Election Day as downscale voters who have not
paid much attention to the election, suddenly tune in
and "come home" to their traditional Democratic Party
moorings. Remember, virtually every poll (except
Zogby) showed Bush slightly ahead of Al Gore as the
2000 election approached - yet Gore outpolled Bush by
500,000 votes...Women disagree with the entire Bush
strategy of fighting terrorism. Offered a choice
between "letting terrorists know we will fight back
aggressively" and "working with other nations," men
opt for fighting aggressively by 53 to 41 percent
while women want us to work with other nations instead
by 54 to 36 percent - a gender gap of 30 points.
Cleanse the White House of the Chickenhawk Coup, Show
Up for Democracy in 2004: Defeat Bush (again!)
http://zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=8053
Dubya In Trouble
BOTH of the polling organizations that track the presidential race in daily surveys have concluded that the contest has settled into a stalemate. Scott Rasmussen reports that for eight of the last nine days, President Bush has gotten 45 to 46 percent of the vote, while Sen. John Kerry ranged from 44 to 46 percent. John Zogby shows Kerry ahead by three and reports little movement either way. This "tie" is terrible news for the Bush camp.
One of the (very few) immutable laws of politics is
that the undecided vote almost always goes against the
incumbent. Consider the past seven presidential
elections in which an incumbent ran (1964, '72, '76,
'80, '84, '92, and '96) - that is, look at the final
vote versus the last Gallup or Harris polls. My
analysis shows that the challengers (Goldwater,
McGovern, Carter, Reagan, Mondale, Perot, Clinton, and
Dole) got 85 percent of the undecided vote. Even
incumbents who won got only 15 percent of those who
reported that they were undecided in the final polls.
So . . . when Bush and Kerry are tied, the challenger
really has the upper hand.
More bad news for Bush: Democrats usually grow 2-3
points right before Election Day as downscale voters
who have not paid much attention to the election,
suddenly tune in and "come home" to their traditional
Democratic Party moorings. Remember, virtually every
poll (except Zogby) showed Bush slightly ahead of Al
Gore as the 2000 election approached - yet Gore
outpolled Bush by 500,000 votes.
I had thought - and hoped - that Bush could open up a
big lead in the two months after Kerry locked up the
Democratic nomination. After all, Kerry is, in fact,
way too liberal for the average American voter. But
Bush's negative ads - though good, plentiful, and on
target - lost their impact in April.
What happened? Iraq. The surprising casualties of this
disastrous month let Kerry skate by the avalanche of
attack ads relatively unscathed. And by now, Bush may
have lost the ability to define Kerry
Lying behind the bad news for Bush is his inability to
appeal to women in the campaign. His "stand firm"
press conference last week was entirely male-oriented.
His tough words and determination to defend the cause
of the "fallen" resonated well with men but crashed
among women.
The genders see the War on Terror in totally different
terms. Rasmussen reports that men, by 51 percent to 36
percent, say that the U.S. is safer than it was before
9/11. But women are evenly divided, with 41 percent
feeling more safe and 42 percent, less.
Women disagree with the entire Bush strategy of
fighting terrorism. Offered a choice between "letting
terrorists know we will fight back aggressively" and
"working with other nations," men opt for fighting
aggressively by 53 to 41 percent while women want us
to work with other nations instead by 54 to 36 percent
- a gender gap of 30 points.
To bounce back, Bush obviously has to staunch the
bleeding in Iraq. But he also has to appeal to women
voters as he did in 2000.
Then, he was a "compassionate conservative" committed
to leaving "no child behind." Now he needs to speak of
the human toll exacted by Saddam Hussein when he ran
Iraq. He should speak about saving the children of
that beleaguered nation. At home, he has to explain
why a democratic - or at least a stable - Iraq means
more safety for our families. He should discard the
military-macho rhetoric and the bureaucratic
references to American "credibility" and focus on
values, human beings, children and hope.
If Bush permanently alienates women by his words and
tone in the War on Terror, he'll throw away the issue
that he needs to carry him into a second term.
(4/20/2004)
- By Dick Morris, The New York Post
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