Ray Teixiera: "But what's interesting here is that they broke down the late May and current poll samples in states Bush won by 5 percent or more, in swing states, and in states Gore won by 5 percent and more. This exercise shows that all of the move toward the Democrats over this period has been in swing states (from +19 for Bush to dead-even) and in Gore states (from dead-even to +13 for the Democrats). The Bush states haven’t budged (+22 for Bush in May, +23 for Bush today)."
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Voting On Iraq
Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at The Century
Foundation and the Center for American Progress, and
co-author of The Emerging Democratic Majority
(Scribner, 2002).
Iraq and the 2004 Vote
The latest NPR poll has a few interesting findings
that deserve to be highlighted. First, the generic
presidential ballot—Bush versus our trusty unnamed
Democrat—has changed dramatically since their poll in
late May. At that point, Bush was leading by 15 points
(50 percent to 35 percent); now he’s leading by just
three points (44 percent to 41 percent). That’s
consistent with trend on most other public polls. But
what's interesting here is that they broke down the
late May and current poll samples in states Bush won
by 5 percent or more, in swing states, and in states
Gore won by 5 percent and more. This exercise shows
that all of the move toward the Democrats over this
period has been in swing states (from +19 for Bush to
dead-even) and in Gore states (from dead-even to +13
for the Democrats). The Bush states haven’t budged
(+22 for Bush in May, +23 for Bush today).
One reason for the pro-Democratic shift over this time
period is the rise in salience of the situation in
Iraq. Just in the past couple of months, the number of
respondents citing the situation in Iraq as one of the
two top issues that will influence their presidential
vote in 2004 has doubled (from 14 percent to 28
percent). And those citing Iraq favor the Democrat in
the generic presidential ballot by 29 points. Those
citing a number of other areas also favor the
Democrats: education (by 25 points); affordable health
care (by 21 points); the federal deficit (by 20
points); Social Security/Medicare (by 14 points); and
the economy and jobs (by 12 points). But it seems
clear that the higher the voter salience of the Iraq
situation, the better the Democrats are likely to do
in November 2004. Not exactly what Rove and Co. had in
mind (see Public Opinion Watch’s analysis, "Plan A
Falls Apart," for more discussion).
* * *
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Public Opinion Strategies
poll of 700 registered voters for National Public
Radio (NPR), released November 24, 2003 (conducted
November 11-13, 2003)
* * *
Economy is Up; Bush's Numbers Aren't
Two polls released last week confirm that the recent
good economic news hasn’t helped Bush’s standing with
the public much. The latest Ipsos/Cook Political
Report poll has the right direction/wrong track
question at 38 percent right direction/56 percent
wrong track, exactly where this measure was in the
last half of September and early October. Bush’s
overall approval rating in the Ipsos poll is at 50
percent, the lowest rating they’ve recorded for him
since 9/11. Even his approval rating on the economy
has snapped back to net negative (46 percent
approval/51 percent disapproval) after reaching the
break-even point in early November. And, for the first
time in this poll, the number who would "definitely
vote to re-elect Bush as president" is identical with
the number who would "definitely vote for someone
else" (37 percent to 37 percent). (Another 25 percent
say that they would "consider voting for someone
else.")
The latest Time/CNN poll has a different re-elect
question, but also has Bush at a post-9/11 low. In
this poll, 47 percent say that they would be very
likely or somewhat likely to vote for him for
re-election, compared to 48 percent who say that they
would be very or somewhat unlikely to vote for him.
Significantly, more people say that they would be very
unlikely to vote for him (38 percent) than say that
they would be very likely to support him (32 percent).
This poll also shows how the public’s personal bond
with Bush is continuing to erode. Just 44 percent now
say that he is a leader they can trust (down from 56
percent in March), compared to 54 percent who say that
they have some doubts and reservations.
Note that political independents have an even more
jaundiced view: only 38 percent say that they can
trust him, while 61 percent have doubts. In addition,
by 48 percent to 39 percent, the public thinks that
Bush has been too partisan in office; by 53 percent to
43 percent, they think that he has been too quick to
interject his own moral and religious beliefs into
politics; by 54 percent to 44 percent, they think that
he is out of touch with ordinary Americans; and by 58
percent to 37 percent, they think that he has favored
policies that benefit the rich at the expense of the
middle class. Hmmm. Sounds like the public’s starting
to catch on.
* * *
Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll of 1,003 adults,
released November 21, 2003 (conducted November 18-20,
2003)
Harris Interactive poll of 1,507 adults for Time/CNN,
released November 23, 2003 (conducted November 18-19,
2003)
* * *
Healthcare Done Right? Try a Democrat
The general assumption is that passage of the bill
will significantly help the Republicans by delivering
a new benefit to seniors, burnishing Bush’s
compassionate conservative credentials, and taking a
key Democratic issue off the table. And that would be
true if another, better Medicare bill had passed. It
is not true of the actual bill that passed. Take the
views of seniors, surely where the payoff for the GOP
should be most obvious, if there is a payoff.
According to a poll last week by Peter Hart Research
for the AFL-CIO, almost two-thirds of voters age 55
and older thought Congress and the White House should
work for a better Medicare prescription drug plan than
the one on offer. Just 19 percent wanted Congress to
pass the bill under consideration. The same poll found
that 65 percent of these voters viewed the drug plan
unfavorably and the same number viewed the subsidies
for private HMOs unfavorably. Also, 64 percent opposed
the bill’s provisions to ban importation of drugs from
Canada and an overwhelming 78 percent said that the
bill doesn’t do enough to protect retirees now covered
by employer-provided prescription drug plans. Oh, but
that’s just an AFL-CIO poll, right? What can you
expect from them? Perhaps it wasn’t a fair and
balanced poll?
That complaint would have more credence if we didn’t
have even more recent results from the University of
Pennsylvania National Annenberg Election Survey. This
survey found that, based on a carefully neutral
description of the bill, the public as a whole opposed
the bill 42 percent to 40 percent, registered voters
opposed it 44 percent to 39 percent, those over age
fifty opposed the bill 49 percent to 36 percent, and
those over age 65 opposed it 49 percent to 33 percent.
And, interestingly, those holding a favorable opinion
of AARP, which of course endorsed the bill, opposed
its passage 45 percent to 38 percent. So, it’s not a
particularly popular bill, especially with those it’s
intended to benefit directly.
Democrats are going to dwell on the shortcomings of
the bill relentlessly, from failure to control drug
costs to moving away from a choice-of-doctor-based
Medicare system to the skimpiness of the benefit and
its impact on those who already have good drug
coverage. By these data, seniors already are inclined
to believe much of what Democrats are going to be
saying. That likely spells trouble for the GOP. Just
saying it’s better than nothing won’t help them much,
in Public Opinion Watch’s view. Nor will the fact that
seniors won’t actually receive the benefit until
2006—and so, runs the argument, they won’t realize how
bad it is until after 2004. How dumb do they think
seniors are? Public Opinion Watch is betting they’ll
figure this one out pretty quick—and when they do,
they’ll come to the obvious conclusion: if you want
health care done right, hire a Democrat.
* * *
Peter Hart Research poll of voters 55 years and older
for the AFL-CIO, released November 20, 2003 (conducted
November 18-19, 2003)
University of Pennsylvania poll of 860 adults for
National Annenberg Election Survey, released November
24, 2003 (conducted November 19-23, 2003)
* * *
Published: Dec 05 2003
Posted by richard at December 6, 2003 01:46 PM